Republicans Face Heartland Humiliation as Dem Is Favored Big in Red State

Republicans are staring down the possibility of a nightmare loss in deep-red Iowa, as Kalshi now gives the Democratic candidate for governor an eye-popping lead.

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The prediction market gives Democrat Rob Sand a 77 percent chance of winning on Election Day, well clear of his Republican challenger Zach Lahn—and just one point below the highest Sand’s odds have ever been on the site.

Lahn, 40, did not see a spike in his favor after defeating a President Donald Trump-endorsed candidate in the primary. Instead, the 44-year-old Sand has pulled away in August—from a 64 percent chance at the start of the month to 77 percent by Tuesday.

Trump won Iowa in all three of his presidential elections. His largest margin of victory came in 2024, when he won the state by 13 points.

However, the president’s failed promises to deliver lower grocery, energy, and gas prices have his approval ratings falling by the day and Democrats rising in the polls.

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Trump’s war with Iran also remains hugely unpopular across party lines, and two of the 18 soldiers killed in the conflict—20-year-old Sgt. Declan J. Coady and 45-year-old Maj. Jeffrey R. O’Brien—were from Iowa.

Still, capturing the governorship in Iowa would be a stunning victory for Democrats, who have not governed the state since Chet Culver served a single term between 2007 and 2011. He went on to lose by 10 points in the 2010 midterms.

Sand has pitched himself to Iowa voters as a pragmatic, cross-party leader. Lahn was endorsed by Trump as a “tremendous” candidate and an “America First Patriot” in July, but has struggled to gain ground in multiple polls. These surveys pushed the Cook Political Report to shift Iowa from being a “toss-up” for governor to “lean Democrat” last week.

Lahn is also facing questions about his primary residence after the Daily Beast revealed that he has secretly lived in a multimillion-dollar mansion in Kansas, hundreds of miles from the state he wants to run.