Bettors Score Big Payday on Trump’s Risky Senate Pick
Gamblers have profited millions after President Donald Trump’s handpicked senator narrowly won her South Carolina Republican Senate primary.
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Polls painted Sen. Darline Graham as being neck and neck with or slightly behind her Republican challenger, Ralph Norman, on Election Day, but prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket favored the newly appointed senator to be the winner in the hours before polls closed.
The markets ultimately proved to be correct—and now some are collecting a big payday.
Nearly $26 million was wagered on the race on Kalshi, and another $4.5 million on Polymarket.
Kalshi does not report individual winners, but Polymarket reported that one user profited a whopping $1.1 million on the race—$364,851 from “No” contracts for Norman and $716,311 on “Yes” contracts for Graham.
In total, at least 66 people profited more than $1,000 on Polymarket, and at least seven netted more than $10,000 on the race.
Capturing the Republican nomination appears to be the biggest hurdle for the 62-year-old Graham, who is hoping to win a six-year Senate term after being appointed to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham, in July. Kalshi lists her as having an 82 percent chance of defeating Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews in November.
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Andrews is sure to attack Graham’s lack of political experience, as she has suffered multiple humiliating flubs in her short time as senator.
On Tuesday, Graham called universal healthcare a “bad idea” and cited her own personal experience to make her case—oblivious that she made an argument against herself by revealing her parents died when she was a teen because they could never go see a doctor.
“My parents worked long, hard hours to make ends meet,” she said. “We didn’t take vacations. If they were sick, they had to get up and go to work because the doors weren’t open; we weren’t making money. My mother passed away when I was 11, and my father just over a year later.”
Graham was promptly mocked online.
Just a week earlier, Graham had an equally embarrassing moment on the debate stage. Some in the audience booed her after she outright refused to answer a question about Taiwan and the South China Sea, saying she is simply “not that informed on national security.”
Despite this, President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Graham. He even traveled to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to stump for her last week, and his MAGA Inc. Super PAC has pumped $827,000 to boost her Senate bid.
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