Bombshell Poll Reveals Trump’s MAGA Base Crumbling as Midterms Loom

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is plummeting, even among his most loyal bloc.

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A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll spells trouble for the party ahead of the midterms, showing Trump is stuck at 37 percent. Even more damning, though, is that a growing share of his own Republican base is losing enthusiasm for him.

Among Republican-leaning independents, approval has slipped to 52 percent, even as 81 percent of Republicans overall still back him. Trump remains most popular among rural adults (50 percent), white men without college degrees (53 percent), white Catholics (57 percent) and white evangelical Protestants (70 percent).

The economy and Iran are dragging his numbers down further. Just 33 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, and only 29 percent approve of his conduct overseeing the war with Iran. Immigration remains a relative bright spot at 40 percent approval, though that’s down significantly from the 50 percent he enjoyed at the start of his current term.

By more than 2 to 1, Americans expect the economy to worsen over the next year. Only 40 percent believe they have a good chance of improving their standard of living, compared with 65 percent who said the same in 2018 during Trump’s first term. A new high of 43 percent say they are “not as well off” as when Trump returned to office, a 12-point jump since February that now matches how Americans once viewed the Biden administration.

Two-thirds of Americans say groceries are unaffordable, up sharply from 45 percent before the Iran war began in February.

Republicans have tried rebranding last year’s tax legislation, once called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as the “working families tax cut.” The pitch isn’t landing.

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Only 19 percent say they paid less in taxes because of the law, while 25 percent think they paid more, 25 percent see no difference, and 30 percent aren’t sure, even though the Treasury Department says 97 percent of filers received some tax cut compared with letting the 2017 cuts expire.

Gas prices are proving just as stubborn a problem. Trump has promised that ending the Iran conflict will quickly bring prices down, but roughly 6 in 10 Americans doubt it. Gas averaged $3.89 a gallon this week, down from a May peak of $4.56 but still well above the $2.93 average before the United States and Israel struck Iran. The war, which officials once predicted would be brief, has now dragged on for roughly five months.

Last week, Trump announced the end of a ceasefire and resumed strikes on Iran, then this week announced a blockade on Iranian ports before appearing to back off that plan.

Two-thirds of Americans say they lack confidence that military action and negotiations will stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and 68 percent say the war has not been worth fighting, compared with 28 percent who say it has. Just over half of Americans say U.S. leadership in the world has weakened under Trump, while 29 percent say it has strengthened.

The Washington Post-Ipsos poll was conducted online July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults nationwide, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

Overall, Trump’s disapproval rating sits at 61 percent, statistically unchanged from a previous survey, while his approval among registered voters is 40 percent. Those numbers put his standing on par with where it stood when he left office in January 2021, after losing his re-election bid and watching his supporters storm the U.S. Capitol.

Republican majorities in both the House and Senate are now at risk in November, a shift that would hamper Trump and reshape governing dynamics in Washington for the remainder of his term.

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