Election Forecaster Swings Four Races in Fresh Warning to MAGA

Politics admin July 10, 2026 0 Comments

Election Forecaster Swings Four Races in Fresh Warning to MAGA

A top election forecaster has shifted four gubernatorial races in Democrats’ favor, while only one race moved positively for Republicans.

The Cook Political Report has moved the governor’s race in Ohio from “lean R” to “Toss Up” in a blow to the MAGA candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and also shifted the Arizona race from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.”

The other favorable shifts for Democrats are in the gubernatorial races in New Mexico, now considered “Solidly D,” and in Maine, also considered “Solid D.”

Republicans’ lone silver lining in the latest update from the Cook Political Report is regarding the race in Oregon. There, the governor’s race has shifted from “Solid D” to “Likely D,” reflecting poor approval ratings for Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek.

Democrats being competitive in Ohio is particularly troubling for Republicans and President Donald Trump. Ramaswamy is firmly aligned with MAGA and is running in a state that has not voted for a Democratic president since Barack Obama in 2012.

Ohio Republicans acknowledged to the Cook Political Report that they “are not optimistic about Ramaswamy” and that the expectation is that it will be a “very tight race.” He is running to replace Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who is term-limited.

“This was the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment,” a GOP source told the election forecaster of Ramaswamy.

If Democrats are able to flip Ohio and perform as expected elsewhere in the country, they may have more sitting governors than Republicans for the first time in over a decade.

“There’s no prize for the party that holds the majority of governorships, but Democrats may be poised to take the lead nationally for the first time since 2010,” writes the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor. “That’s in part because the party now finds itself surprisingly competitive in several red-leaning states, including Ohio and Iowa, due to a favorable national climate and unique Democratic recruits.”

Things remain favorable for Democrats in swing House and Senate races, too.

While Republicans hold a majority in both chambers, prediction markets like Kalshi now give the Democrats an 81 percent chance of retaking the House in November and a 44 percent chance of controlling the Senate—a figure that would have been unimaginable in the early months of MAGA 2.0.