CNN Data Guru Finds Even More Bad News for Trump in His Poll Plunge
President Donald Trump’s nosedive in the polls is even worse than first realized.
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The 80-year-old’s approval rating has been in a tailspin since his return to the White House last year, despite the president constantly dismissing any negative numbers as “fake.”
During his first term at the Resolute Desk, Republicans’ fortunes in the 2018 midterms were widely regarded as a failure after losing control of the House, but drilling into the numbers, CNN’s data guru Harry Enten has suggested that this year’s could be even worse.
“You know, if this were a game of limbo, President Trump would be winning,” Enten said on Tuesday. “Unfortunately, this is the game of presidential popularity, and he is reaching record lows yet again. He is losing.
“Trump net approval hits a term-two low, 31 points underwater. 31 points underwater according to the Reuters Ipsos Poll. Look where he was at the beginning of term number two. He was at plus six points. So he is down… 37 points from where he was at the beginning of his second presidency.
“President Trump was unpopular going into the midterms during his first presidency, but not anywhere as unpopular as this. He was 12 points underwater.
“He is doing 19 points worse than he was doing in term number one at this point. And of course, those midterms were quite disastrous for the Republican Party. So you look at these numbers and you just go, ‘oy vey’ if you’re a Republican.”
Trump had -1 percent among independents when he was inaugurated last year, but since then that bloc has fallen off a cliff for him.
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“Republicans still in large part support Donald Trump, but it’s independents who are the name of the game, they are the driver in elections,” Enten said. “And just look at why these numbers are falling the way that they are. It is because of independents. Look at these drops. I mean, Trump’s not operating among independents. Term two, he’s 47 points underwater now—47 points underwater.
“He was at minus one point at the beginning of his presidency, basically treading water, right? So what is that? That’s a 46-point drop.
“So you see that drop of 31 points from where he was at the beginning of his presidency or 37 points from where he was at the beginning of his presidency among the overall electorate, but that’s nothing compared to this 46-point drop among independents.”
He also pointed out that Trump is in danger of blowing the Republicans’ poor 2018 midterms out of the water.
He revealed that in August 2018 his approval sat at -10 points among independents, which seems rosy compared to the -47 percent he is facing at the same point eight years on.
“And look at, compare that to where he was at this point in term number one before those midterms. Again, he was underwater then, but he was just 10 points underwater then. Now he’s 47 points underwater.
“You have to win the center of the electorate in order to maintain your popularity, in order for Republicans to win in these midterm elections. But independents are saying, ‘You know what? We don’t like what’s going on. See you later.’”
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